Assured News

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

10 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

28.3%chance

22164709208

OptionVotes

YES

18445

4797

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

YES

2206

453

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

YES

1257

604

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

1217

848

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Jan 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

13547

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

151

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.34%chance

9260

OptionVotes

YES

294

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Apr 8, 2:01 AMDec 31, 1:59 AM

43%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will Callum Turner cheat on Dua Lipa?

Jun 21, 6:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.33%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

OptionVotes

YES

108

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BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup
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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Will Callum Turner cheat on Dua Lipa?

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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