Assured News

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

1 year ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.6%chance

22594845505

OptionVotes

YES

19480

4415

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

YES

2206

453

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

26.39%chance

182496

OptionVotes

YES

1209

900

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

Mar 11, 10:28 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

241064

OptionProbability

After March 31 2026.

Before 01/01 2027

During April 2026.

Within 10 days.

100

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.16%chance

18636

OptionVotes

YES

1204

852

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

151

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

13299

OptionVotes

YES

252

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will the US military strike Houthi targets in Yemen before November 12, 2026?

Oct 12, 9:10 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

8%chance

5135

OptionVotes

YES

233

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Apr 8, 2:01 AMDec 31, 1:59 AM

43%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

OptionVotes

YES

108

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BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup
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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Will the US military strike Houthi targets in Yemen before November 12, 2026?

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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