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Prediction markets for Assured
OptionVotes
19277
4486
Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030
Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
82.96%chance
177006
OptionVotes
2206
453
Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?
Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
50.07%chance
161264
OptionVotes
1257
604
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
21.9%chance
18623
OptionVotes
1217
848
OptionProbability
80
79
45
0
OptionVotes
109
91
Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?
Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.4%chance
15465
OptionVotes
148
68
OptionVotes
183
55
Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry
Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11%chance
8250
OptionVotes
284
35
Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.65%chance
7135
OptionVotes
159
63
Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
22%chance
18
OptionVotes
108
62
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