Astrophysics News

Sean Duffy: NASA Plans Moon Base Under Trump Administration, Faces Astrophysics Turnover and Shifts From Earth Science

3 days ago

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Oct 3, 4:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.23%chance

362930

OptionVotes

YES

2811

356

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Apr 2, 4:16 AMMar 2, 11:59 PM

191701

OptionProbability

International Mathematical Olympiad

International Olympiad in Informatics

International Astronomy Olympiad

International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics

International Biology Olympiad

International Physics Olympiad

International Earth Science Olympiad

International Chemistry Olympiad

100

Is the Silurian hypothesis true?

Nov 11, 7:39 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

2.89%chance

6604

OptionVotes

YES

462

105

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

Jan 20, 8:44 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM

9270

OptionProbability

It has or may continue to vary over time at times after the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

It varied over time during the first 1 billion years after the Big Bang

At the current time it varies across space

Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?

Feb 18, 7:29 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6.75%chance

5223

OptionVotes

YES

373

105

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

Feb 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.02%chance

11202

OptionVotes

YES

241

161

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

5176

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Dark Matter Interaction

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.39%chance

683

OptionVotes

YES

144

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Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Space
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Sean Duffy: NASA Plans Moon Base Under Trump Administration, Faces Astrophysics Turnover and Shifts From Earth Science
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Prediction markets for Astrophysics

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Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Is the Silurian hypothesis true?

Where and when does the Fine Structure Constant (α) vary?

Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

Latest stories

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