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Prediction markets for Atari
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?
Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.22%chance
162710
OptionVotes
1130
949
OptionVotes
1422
790
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?
Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.94%chance
14898
OptionVotes
1698
695
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.66%chance
7639
OptionVotes
1373
728
When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?
Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
5258
OptionProbability
37
26
15
13
2
2
2
2
Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?
Jun 22, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
45.34%chance
7248
OptionVotes
683
428