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Authentic Brands Takes Guess Private in US$1.4 Billion Deal
Authors
12
5 months ago
Prediction markets for Authentic
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.35%chance
5315168
OptionVotes
1681
1326
Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?
Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM
4.49%chance
5310344
OptionVotes
4613
217
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026
Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM
41.18%chance
292620
OptionVotes
1195
837
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?
Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.93%chance
351892
OptionVotes
1018
954
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17753
OptionProbability
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?
Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM
28.97%chance
13657
OptionVotes
1027
859
iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos
Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
92%chance
5516
OptionVotes
186
77
When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?
Apr 24, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5392
OptionProbability
40
39
13
6
2
In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?
Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM
74.77%chance
12294
OptionVotes
1100
941
100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?
May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM
51.19%chance
3241
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?
Mar 19, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
38.27%chance
327
OptionVotes
127
79

