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Authentic Brands Takes Guess Private in US$1.4 Billion Deal
Authors
12
16 hours ago
Prediction markets for Authentic
Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?
Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
13.19%chance
5529670
OptionVotes
24349
5000
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
91.47%chance
5013718
OptionVotes
4838
836
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?
Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM
4.51%chance
519229
OptionVotes
4603
217
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?
Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.68%chance
341695
OptionVotes
1124
827
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17753
OptionProbability
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos
Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
92%chance
5516
OptionVotes
186
77
When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?
Apr 24, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5392
OptionProbability
40
39
13
6
2
100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?
May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM
51.19%chance
3241
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?
Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.59%chance
262
OptionVotes
162
62
Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?
Mar 19, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
38.27%chance
327
OptionVotes
127
79
Does doing something "just to troll" another person or group of people make it better than if it was done authentically?
Jan 21, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50