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Prediction markets for Authentic
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.35%chance
5315168
OptionVotes
1681
1326
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?
Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM
10.25%chance
189192
OptionVotes
2959
338
Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?
Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM
9.13%chance
453162
OptionVotes
1535
899
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.28%chance
232201
OptionVotes
2673
374
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?
Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.86%chance
371969
OptionVotes
1085
902
When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?
Apr 24, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
101360
OptionProbability
53
33
7
4
3
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17753
OptionProbability
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?
Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM
28.97%chance
13657
OptionVotes
1027
859
Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?
Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM
78.41%chance
2410
OptionVotes
1363
876
In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?
Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM
74.77%chance
12294
OptionVotes
1100
941
Will majority consensus in AI ethics shift toward explicitly prioritizing authentic subjective fulfillment by 2030s end?
Mar 19, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
38.27%chance
327
OptionVotes
127
79


