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Prediction markets for AV
What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)
Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM
55.39%chance
139101337
OptionProbability
1411
1260
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
Jan 11, 6:33 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
12.4%chance
16242263
OptionVotes
2607
408
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.44%chance
15835470
OptionVotes
1721
1121
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83%chance
11419905
OptionVotes
4405
1278
Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?
May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.03%chance
4914598
OptionVotes
2832
661
♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Delaware by 2025?
Apr 7, 2:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
58.61%chance
2012668
OptionVotes
3211
688
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
73.07%chance
18312142
OptionVotes
3887
1744
What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?
Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1276965
OptionProbability
34
32
16
10
4
4
0
In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?
Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
163915
OptionProbability
35
24
16
13
13
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM
36%chance
342207
OptionVotes
1141
887
Will Cruise re-obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
Apr 10, 7:56 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM
1%chance
61349
OptionVotes
1419
15
OptionVotes
1048
954
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