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Prediction markets for Avis
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97
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59
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53
50
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50
36
34
20
OptionProbability
11
11
10
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
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1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM
15.45%chance
284135
OptionVotes
2340
427
Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?
Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
77.35%chance
113705
OptionVotes
1046
973
Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
May 20, 12:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
79.74%chance
213616
OptionVotes
1984
504
OptionVotes
737
223
OptionVotes
1743
574
Who will have found the most Sidekick bugs when the linearizer launches?
Oct 4, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1753
OptionProbability
62
8
6
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
Who will succeed Jagmeet Singh as the next leader of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP)?
Nov 3, 1:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
8720
OptionProbability
13
11
10
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
5
3
3
2
0
0
0
Will aviation fuel with lead be banned in the United States before 2029?
Jun 3, 4:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.96%chance
11705
OptionVotes
1200
833
Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?
Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
42.03%chance
1180
OptionVotes
1174
852
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of Avi Schiffman's Friend AI device before the end of June 2026?
Jun 30, 11:59 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
36%chance
583
OptionVotes
133
75
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