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Prediction markets for Barnes
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM
5.95%chance
19570826
OptionVotes
5527
1702
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
28%chance
3320202
OptionVotes
6387
4741
OptionProbability
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
89
88
88
88
86
85
84
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
81
81
79
78
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
73
72
72
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
66
66
65
65
62
59
54
52
50
50
48
46
45
41
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
31
29
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
202370
OptionProbability
64
6
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Which basketball players will win an NBA Championship someday? [Add responses]
Feb 18, 6:36 PMAug 26, 3:59 AM
251528
OptionProbability
100
99
96
76
66
63
44
42
34
33
30
30
21
15
14
13
11
9
1
1
If this person is the Democratic primary nominee for Wisconsin governor in 2026, will they win the election?
Jul 23, 1:28 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
151151
OptionProbability
81
66
55
50
45
OptionProbability
91
3
3
3
Will a book titled "Arylcyclohexylamines I Have Known And Loved" be published by EOY2031?
Apr 25, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.93%chance
253
OptionVotes
153
65
OptionProbability
18
18
18
16
16
14
OptionVotes
63
40
Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?
Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.5%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?
Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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