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Prediction markets for Base
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
5%chance
5893335
OptionVotes
3148
765
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?
Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.97%chance
1418493
OptionVotes
2262
1776
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.46%chance
2112898
OptionVotes
13764
3641
Will 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 300.00 USDC Base by November 10th 11:59 pm UTC
Nov 6, 2:58 PMNov 10, 11:58 PM
4.87%chance
34953
OptionVotes
30562
29971
OptionVotes
1644
608
Will OpenAI announce a massively recursive model, a new mechinterp system, and non-token based pricing, before December?
Oct 15, 12:48 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
4.46%chance
204353
OptionVotes
1121
994
1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.
Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.77%chance
443827
OptionVotes
1026
635
OptionVotes
1205
869
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.94%chance
372146
OptionVotes
1014
884
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.93%chance
23884
OptionVotes
1144
495
ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?
Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33
based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES
Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM
00
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