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Prediction markets for Basel
[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM
1515734
OptionProbability
48
41
4
2
2
1
1
1
Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
Mar 17, 7:16 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
97%chance
2112769
OptionVotes
5751
178
By 2050, how many degrees (C°) of global warming will there be relative to the 1851-1900 baseline?
Jul 9, 9:32 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
223038
OptionProbability
43
22
11
7
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
CI2026: Will COP31 agree on a baseline year for the objective of tripling adaptation finance?
Oct 16, 9:06 AMNov 20, 10:59 PM
14442
OptionProbability
50
36
9
4
Will average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
Jan 9, 4:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.99%chance
9336
OptionVotes
325
96
Will any major auction house hold a dedicated NFT auction during Art Basel Miami 2026?
Feb 16, 11:47 PMDec 7, 11:59 PM
36.54%chance
5160
OptionVotes
132
76
Will Academic Capture Become a Topic of 5X Interest Than Baseline by Year End 2033?
May 24, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
37.9%chance
4100
OptionVotes
173
87
Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?
Aug 31, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.96%chance
343
OptionVotes
115
87
New Zealand's annual temperature anomaly (against a 1960-90 climate baseline) will not be below +1°C before 2030
Nov 1, 10:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
52.3%chance
215
OptionVotes
75
65


