BBC News

YES

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

Evan permabanned from Manifold

Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

Charlie Kirk dies

Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

The Trump Admin fails to issue any federal policies to protect campus speakers before 2027.

government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

South Park does an episode that alludes to it

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

Another political assassination (either side)

Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

Information reward money paid

high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

arson attack against gender clinic

A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

At least one furry convention canceled

Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

TPUSA supports a gun control bill

BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

Any Democratic politician is arrested

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

Any news organization is shut down

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

80s-style moral panic over furries

Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

America becomes a one-party GOP state.

National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

Kash Patel fired

South Park canceled

Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Chief of Staff to the President

NASA administrator

Senate Majority Leader

Senate Minority Leader

Director General of the BBC (british broadcasting corporation)

USA President

Secretary General of the UN

NSA director

Secretary of the Treasury

CEO of Google

FBI director

Chief Justice of Supreme Court

Chairman/Chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

US Secretary of Defense

Chief of Staff of the Army

Head Coach of a Major League Baseball team

Cardinal in the Catholic Church

YES

Epoch Times

NPR

Wired

Time

TMZ

Los Angeles Times

New York Post

USA Today

The Onion

Times of India

Gateway Pundit

Babylon Bee

Daily Wire

Newsmax

Breitbart

Al Jazeera

Associated Press (AP)

The Information

The Base Rate Times

Fox News

Wall Street Journal

CNN

BBC

NPR

NO

NO

Other

Harry Kane

George Russell

Luke Littler

BBC One

BBC Two

ITV

Channel 4