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Prediction markets for Bears
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1400 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - bear case)
Jun 19, 10:10 PMDec 31, 6:00 PM
2.69%chance
3761241
OptionVotes
4961
699
OptionProbability
71
29
OptionProbability
1085
904
Will the Brown Bear (Ursus arctus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 12:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
7.63%chance
161702
OptionVotes
2012
228
Will someone successfully introduce polar bears to the south pole by mid 2031
Nov 2, 2:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
9.03%chance
161174
OptionVotes
2106
803
Will "I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 4, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.94%chance
3755
OptionVotes
1545
932
Will the Chicago Bears win the Super Bowl following any of the 2024-2027 seasons?
May 9, 1:48 PMFeb 25, 4:59 AM
12.18%chance
13624
OptionVotes
269
37
Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.95%chance
14606
OptionVotes
1026
388
Will Kevin Warren still be with the Bears at the start of the 2027 regular season?
Oct 2, 3:37 PMSep 9, 7:00 PM
62.97%chance
3550
OptionVotes
1304
767
Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
21.64%chance
9335
OptionVotes
665
424
Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.22%chance
8287
OptionVotes
746
401
Will "A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 25, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.13%chance
12
OptionVotes
1002
991
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