Bethesda News

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Hollow Knight Silk song released

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Dodgers win World Series

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Chuck Schumer resigns

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

Harry and Meghan divorce

Early general elections in Pakistan

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

US-China war

Biden gets hospitalised

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Congress repeals any tariff

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

A country leaves NATO

NATO at war with Russia

A nuclear bomb explodes

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

Trump assassinated

2025 hotter then 2024

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Putin assassinated

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Putin dies

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Biden dies

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

A country leaves the EU

Phillies win the World Series

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

YES

Mostly Positive

Very Positive

Mixed

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO