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Prediction markets for BLA
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.56%chance
9183898
OptionVotes
1325
333
Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece
Jan 3, 10:26 PMOct 3, 4:59 AM
55.32%chance
15818444
OptionVotes
1151
670
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
84.05%chance
14111909
OptionVotes
2678
1439
Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32.02%chance
217085
OptionVotes
14570
6863
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?
Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM
46.49%chance
756150
OptionVotes
1413
944
Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?
Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.48%chance
453347
OptionVotes
1587
228
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
18.71%chance
493249
OptionVotes
1207
925
Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life
Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.26%chance
222440
OptionVotes
1483
783
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.95%chance
52267
OptionVotes
1019
981
OptionVotes
1004
996
Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?
Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
50.88%chance
6195
OptionVotes
1018
983
World blast-furnace iron slag output ≥355M tonnes by end-2026?
Nov 26, 5:15 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
52.44%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952
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