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Prediction markets for BLA
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
50.51%chance
9687078
OptionVotes
1289
367
Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
6.39%chance
4635214
OptionVotes
38284
2612
Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece
Jan 3, 10:26 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM
33.83%chance
17720869
OptionVotes
1528
367
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8616676
OptionProbability
16
16
15
14
11
10
7
6
4
1
1
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
86.98%chance
14712760
OptionVotes
3192
1353
OptionProbability
40
31
13
10
5
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?
Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM
40.76%chance
766300
OptionVotes
1297
1094
Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?
Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
83.27%chance
493685
OptionVotes
1925
127
Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life
Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.26%chance
222440
OptionVotes
1483
783
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.95%chance
52267
OptionVotes
1019
981
Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?
Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
50.88%chance
6195
OptionVotes
1018
983
Outcomes of Eli Lilly's attempt to get retatrutide classified as a biologic vs. a regular drug?
Oct 24, 1:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
341
OptionProbability
50
50
50
41
41
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