Bloomberg Business News

1 year ago

Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 9, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

121065

OptionVotes

YES

2040

861

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

16751

OptionVotes

YES

580

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.01%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

1295

931

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Oct 4, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2206

OptionProbability

First public listing occurs, but no qualifying acquisition announced in the window

Qualifying Salesforce acquisition announced

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic publicly listed by December 31, 2028

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

238

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

12155

OptionVotes

YES

117

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

YES

166

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030

Aug 5, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.3%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

134

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.9%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

988

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Feb 10, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

111

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Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Latest stories

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