Bloomberg News News

6 months ago

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.54%chance

28964435

OptionVotes

YES

7848

6367

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3727127

OptionProbability

Other

$90-100B

$80-90B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$50-60B

$40-50B

<$40B

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

4710036

OptionVotes

YES

1884

531

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.08%chance

237115

OptionVotes

YES

2059

486

Will the House vote on any resolution impeaching Pam Bondi?

Dec 23, 6:22 PMFeb 19, 10:59 AM

11980

OptionProbability

Before Feb 18,2026

Before Jan 10,2026

Before Jan 24,2026

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Feb 4, 6:30 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

21.28%chance

8959

OptionVotes

YES

1923

520

Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?

Nov 8, 9:39 PMJun 1, 8:28 PM

18533

OptionProbability

No, because SCOTUS rules them to be constitutional

No, even though SCOTUS ruled them to be unconstitutional

Partially

Yes, entirely or as much as possible

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

1075

930

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

1096

912

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.06%chance

13270

OptionVotes

YES

1195

945

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

45.36%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

1007

992

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

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Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Will the House vote on any resolution impeaching Pam Bondi?

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Latest stories

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