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Top stories

Citigroup Hires Paul Weiss to Probe Complaints Against Wealth Chief Sieg

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Bloomberg News

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.54%chance

28964435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7848

6367

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3727127

OptionProbability

Other

$90-100B

$80-90B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$50-60B

$40-50B

<$40B

16

13

11

10

9

8

8

7

7

5

3

2

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

4710036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1884

531

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.08%chance

237115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

486

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Feb 4, 6:30 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

21.28%chance

8959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

520

How many times will Bloomberg publish articles mentioning "quantum computing" withinthe next 30 days?

Jan 12, 10:33 PMFeb 11, 10:30 PM

14575

OptionProbability

C) 2 articles

B) 1 article

D) 3 articles

E) 4 or more articles

A) 0 articles

39

34

14

8

4

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

9526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

40

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.06%chance

13270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

945

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

45.36%chance

3140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

992

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Law
Business
Citigroup Hires Paul Weiss to Probe Complaints Against Wealth Chief Sieg
Authors
11
6 months ago

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