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Prediction markets for BN
OptionProbability
55
29
12
5
OptionProbability
3139
2774
OptionVotes
2144
735
OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.83%chance
202800
OptionVotes
2870
348
How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?
Feb 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
171082
OptionProbability
89
87
79
70
47
29
OptionVotes
203
174
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027
Mar 24, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4350
OptionProbability
55
26
10
4
2
2
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030
Mar 24, 2:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
495
OptionProbability
29
27
14
13
11
6
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027
Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
386
OptionProbability
64
14
6
5
5
5
OptionProbability
31
24
15
15
15
OptionVotes
140
71
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030
Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
328
OptionProbability
32
19
16
11
11
11
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