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Prediction markets for BN
OptionProbability
3149
2724
OptionVotes
2044
748
OptionProbability
49
27
13
10
How much is Avatar: Fire and Ash expected to gross worldwide by the end of March?
Feb 3, 9:24 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
134639
OptionProbability
97
1
1
0
0
0
0
OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.72%chance
192798
OptionVotes
2886
346
OptionProbability
47
45
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
569
18
What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?
Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM
32.69%chance
3470
OptionVotes
2470
1679
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2027
Mar 24, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4350
OptionProbability
55
26
10
4
2
2
[Carlini questions] Cost of single SOTA AI system training run by 2030
Mar 24, 2:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
495
OptionProbability
29
27
14
13
11
6
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027
Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
386
OptionProbability
64
14
6
5
5
5
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030
Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
328
OptionProbability
32
19
16
11
11
11
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