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Prediction markets for Bundestag

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12196

9630

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.19%chance

164170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

832

Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht to receive 4% - 4,9% of the vote in 2025 Bundestag election?

Mar 13, 1:05 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

99.06%chance

102397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

8

In which months of 2025 will there be a general federal election (Bundestagswahl) in Germany?

Nov 7, 1:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

171386

OptionProbability

February

August

September

October

July

November

December

January

March

April

May

June

100

3

3

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

40%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Germany submits motion to exclude AfD from state funding in 2025

May 4, 9:39 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

17566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

57

Will Jens Spahn have to step down by the end of ... ?

Jul 15, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5386

Will the recent change to the law on federal election that just passed the Bundestag be overturned by the Federal Court?

Mar 18, 2:54 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

15.93%chance

9359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344

97

When will Germany decide about its nuclear waste repository?

Jul 23, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.03%chance

8316

OptionProbability

NO

YES

436

242

Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

63%chance

7305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Will Jens Spahn step down as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag in 2025?

Jun 25, 1:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.1%chance

8232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

40

28

8

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

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