Bundestag News

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

1 year ago

Germany

Politics

World

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

1 year ago

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.03%chance

227064

OptionVotes

YES

2431

733

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

44.35%chance

244598

OptionVotes

YES

1120

893

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

62.46%chance

382885

OptionVotes

YES

251

242

Will the EU cease to exist within the next 10 years?

Jun 29, 12:23 PMJun 25, 9:23 PM

17.11%chance

182312

OptionVotes

YES

2201

454

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.51%chance

132305

OptionVotes

YES

233

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

161254

OptionVotes

YES

2541

1639

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

5779

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only mainstream parties

4 parties (or more)

2 parties (or less)

The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️

Apr 23, 4:55 PMApr 20, 4:51 PM

28.46%chance

7637

OptionVotes

YES

159

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

YES

1398

715

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

10.48%chance

11467

OptionVotes

YES

292

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10253

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

Jan 20, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.35%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

198

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Prediction markets for Bundestag

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Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Will the EU cease to exist within the next 10 years?

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

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