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Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

6 months ago

Germany

Politics

World

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

5 months ago

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.76%chance

205664

OptionVotes

YES

2279

749

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

53%chance

201495

OptionVotes

YES

106

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.34%chance

131360

OptionVotes

YES

266

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.41%chance

11987

OptionVotes

YES

2286

1778

Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?

Feb 26, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

17935

OptionProbability

Other

Boris Pistorius

Friedrich Merz

No one before 2030

Alice Weidel

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.52%chance

7927

OptionVotes

YES

308

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

38.39%chance

9694

OptionVotes

YES

1267

789

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

67.92%chance

9455

OptionVotes

YES

1455

687

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

4399

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only broadly centrist parties

2 parties (or less)

4 parties (or more)

When will Germany decide about its nuclear waste repository?

Jul 23, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.03%chance

8316

OptionProbability

YES

436

242

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

Jan 20, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.24%chance

226

OptionVotes

YES

108

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Prediction markets for Bundestag

Prediction markets for Bundestag

Prediction markets for Bundestag

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

When will Germany decide about its nuclear waste repository?

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

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