Bundestag News

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

10 months ago

Germany

Politics

World

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

10 months ago

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.98%chance

226754

OptionVotes

YES

2691

709

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

224343

OptionVotes

YES

1020

981

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

60.58%chance

342453

OptionVotes

YES

250

239

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

Oct 22, 9:09 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18%chance

112285

OptionVotes

YES

213

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.53%chance

171817

OptionVotes

YES

378

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.82%chance

121137

OptionVotes

YES

2436

1693

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

5769

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only mainstream parties

4 parties (or more)

2 parties (or less)

The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️

Apr 23, 4:55 PMApr 20, 4:51 PM

28.46%chance

7637

OptionVotes

YES

159

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

YES

1398

715

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

9449

OptionVotes

YES

416

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10253

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

Jan 20, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.35%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

198

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Aug 27, 2025
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Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop
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10 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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Prediction markets for Bundestag

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Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

German Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?

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