Business Insider News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Business Insider
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM
55.58%chance
656578
OptionVotes
1176
762
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?
May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM
15%chance
253022
OptionVotes
2380
420
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
How many cigars (and cigarillos) will I smoke in total during the month of November 2026?
Nov 1, 5:52 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM
5268
OptionProbability
46
26
18
5
4
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027
Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33%chance
12155
OptionVotes
117
90
OptionVotes
180
56
Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?
Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
570
OptionProbability
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030
Aug 5, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.3%chance
365
OptionVotes
134
75
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027
Aug 5, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.9%chance
450
OptionVotes
137
73
Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?
Jan 10, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.08%chance
340
OptionVotes
100
100
Latest stories
Latest stories
