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Business Standard News

    Prediction markets for Business Standard

    Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

    Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    244690

    OptionProbability

    GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

    Trump visits greenland

    GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

    Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

    Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

    Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

    Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

    Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

    Greenland population falls below 40000

    Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

    Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

    Greenland has a military

    20+ story building built

    Greenland significantly changes its flag

    Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

    Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

    Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

    USD is the used currency

    40+ story building built

    81

    80

    54

    39

    25

    23

    22

    21

    21

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    17

    16

    14

    14

    11

    10

    7

    In which months will Claude be available in my work's model picker?

    Feb 28, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    41046

    OptionProbability

    March

    April

    May

    June

    September

    December

    100

    100

    100

    78

    74

    74

    Is Anthropic woke?

    Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM
    83.78%chance
    9462

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    227

    44

    2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

    Mar 4, 7:34 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    1384

    OptionProbability

    Robot-Proof: When Machines Have All the Answers, Build Better People by Vivienne Ming

    Other

    The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth by Nicolas Niarchos

    Bonfire of the Murdochs: How the Epic Fight to Control the Last Great Media Dynasty Broke a Family — and the World by Gabriel Sherman

    Plastic Inc.: Big Oil, Big Money and the Plan to Trash Our Future by Beth Gardiner

    Adrift in the South by Xiao Hai

    Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad . . . and How Great Companies Stay Great by Eric Ries

    The Curious Case of Mike Lynch: The Improbable Life & Death of a Tech Billionaire | Katie Prescot

    Control Science: How Management Made the Modern World by Henry Sno

    Inside the Box | David Epstein

    The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

    House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing | Justin Baer

    I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

    Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

    London Falling | Patrick Radden Keefe

    16

    16

    14

    13

    11

    9

    6

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

    Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    15.05%chance
    5158

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    238

    42

    Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

    May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    57.74%chance
    3110

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    117

    86

    I make a coin-pusher game?

    Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM
    23.58%chance
    380

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    180

    56

    Will OpenDroids (https://jackjay.io/) raise > $2 Million by EOY2028?

    May 21, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    45.25%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

    91

    Sega Stock

    Apr 12, 1:11 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM
    15

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    75

    65

    When will society collapse?

    Jan 29, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    140

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