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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20

1 year ago

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.99%chance

22222043115

OptionVotes

YES

4430

4254

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

2602040008

OptionVotes

YES

2055

1670

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.77%chance

1821110350

OptionVotes

YES

1044

785

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

73829372

OptionVotes

YES

252397

43577

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

995746565

OptionVotes

YES

10534

9400

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

505724917

OptionVotes

YES

16837

12087

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

5223

5020

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529317

OptionVotes

YES

69104

9470

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

88.21%chance

317320623

OptionVotes

YES

3032

293

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

27.53%chance

7874360

OptionVotes

YES

1056

943

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

YES

10568

9573

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.34%chance

323357

OptionVotes

YES

29765

27549

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Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20
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1 year ago

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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Generation Starship By 2150

Latest stories

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