BY News
Top stories
Prediction markets for BY
OptionVotes
3780
1384
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
41.1%chance
21661928569
OptionVotes
5194
3628
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
84%chance
1601087653
OptionVotes
1051
745
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
83.46%chance
401888120
OptionVotes
224889
44275
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.86%chance
983744074
OptionVotes
10719
9239
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.3%chance
500718759
OptionVotes
16246
14400
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.86%chance
615651684
OptionVotes
5682
4007
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
65.39%chance
297534365
OptionVotes
5410
4066
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
831515860
OptionVotes
58238
10505
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
49.17%chance
254212415
OptionVotes
1285
961
OptionVotes
10424
9668
OptionVotes
1152
869