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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20

10 months ago

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.97%chance

2492021198

OptionVotes

YES

2858

1508

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44.01%chance

21791949503

OptionVotes

YES

4894

3851

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

YES

10678

9273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14168

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.87%chance

619656432

OptionVotes

YES

5682

4006

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

YES

11092

3630

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

66%chance

286265221

OptionVotes

YES

1721

641

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

YES

16507

7941

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

YES

130486

84436

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

YES

10424

9668

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.56%chance

15528098

OptionVotes

YES

1444

693

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Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20
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10 months ago

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Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Latest stories

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