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Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.82%chance
1029138455
OptionVotes
344298
43497
OptionVotes
1804
1736
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
56.67%chance
18391290856
OptionVotes
4963
3791
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
71.75%chance
464679780
OptionVotes
17782
9207
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.05%chance
941600472
OptionVotes
11197
8835
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
31.05%chance
165276698
OptionVotes
148701
67433
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
59.91%chance
176211240
OptionVotes
5780
3435
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
50%chance
217172957
OptionVotes
1300
940
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
70%chance
227113753
OptionVotes
1528
655
Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?
Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40%chance
9075160
OptionVotes
75857
45831
OptionVotes
1157
907
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