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Prediction markets for BY
OptionVotes
3988
1361
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
45%chance
21071877945
OptionVotes
4797
3929
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
85.29%chance
1561087508
OptionVotes
1039
813
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
82.58%chance
351782996
OptionVotes
218024
45679
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.42%chance
976741418
OptionVotes
10003
9896
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.13%chance
496718382
OptionVotes
16276
14269
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
592573784
OptionVotes
3255
1407
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
53.85%chance
277452830
OptionVotes
6206
2880
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
57.19%chance
193358760
OptionVotes
1157
866
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
48.26%chance
252212038
OptionVotes
1266
981
Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?
Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
57.98%chance
18941852
OptionVotes
9995
9955