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Prediction markets for BY
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
50.99%chance
22222043115
OptionVotes
4430
4254
OptionVotes
2055
1670
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
84.77%chance
1821110350
OptionVotes
1044
785
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
85.24%chance
73829372
OptionVotes
252397
43577
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53%chance
995746565
OptionVotes
10534
9400
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
77.88%chance
505724917
OptionVotes
16837
12087
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31%chance
642683358
OptionVotes
5223
5020
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
7.67%chance
836529327
OptionVotes
69114
9469
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
88.21%chance
317320623
OptionVotes
3032
293
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM
27.53%chance
7874360
OptionVotes
1056
943
Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?
Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
60.47%chance
19242620
OptionVotes
10568
9573
OptionVotes
29765
27549