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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20

1 year ago

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58.84%chance

22502116876

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YES

5192

3628

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.04%chance

2622075021

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YES

1787

1646

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

92.28%chance

75857043

OptionVotes

YES

362974

30273

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Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.69%chance

998752698

OptionVotes

YES

12331

8038

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.04%chance

508725007

OptionVotes

YES

16811

12177

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

5791

4783

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

91%chance

323325344

OptionVotes

YES

3440

246

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.23%chance

7974410

OptionVotes

YES

1106

925

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

YES

10568

9573

Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?

Oct 11, 6:19 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.37%chance

8442356

OptionVotes

YES

15412

13071

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.3%chance

363622

OptionVotes

YES

30796

28524

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Aug 22, 2025
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India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-5 Missile With 5,000 km Range, Mach 24 Speed From Odisha on August 20
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1 year ago

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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?

Generation Starship By 2150

Latest stories

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