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Prediction markets for California Democrats

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

Chamath prediction: democrats lose one of California or New York by 2032?

Nov 9, 8:00 AMNov 1, 1:59 PM

34.03%chance

8490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernatorial election?

May 31, 4:49 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

95.71%chance

7451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

499

76

Will Betty Yee be elected California Governor in 2026

Feb 3, 5:05 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

19.62%chance

10225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

86

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

81

19

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district

Jun 4, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent)

Other

55

45

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Other

55

45

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 22nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

214

OptionProbability

Susan Rubio (incumbent)

Other

54

46

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)

Jaron Brandon

Jeramy Young

Other

40

20

20

20

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Other

33

33

33

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

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