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Prediction markets for CAME
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.1%chance
194280263
OptionVotes
10838
9495
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
34
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2498
461
When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM
349917
OptionProbability
44
25
20
19
16
6
5
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
Will Ukrainians who came to USA under the U4U program be allowed to legally stay for 5+ years?
Jul 29, 11:12 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM
52.24%chance
493886
OptionVotes
1102
836
OptionVotes
1937
86
OptionVotes
109
92
In 2033, will Richard Hanania believe that the predictions they made about deepfakes came true?
Mar 30, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
64%chance
12141
OptionVotes
1062
952
TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"
Dec 16, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
56.1%chance
575
OptionVotes
113
88


