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Prediction markets for Capital One
OptionVotes
1106
905
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
325752
OptionVotes
1335
751
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
75.68%chance
173564
OptionVotes
1159
926
OptionVotes
1730
753
Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.09%chance
231483
OptionVotes
1197
835
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?
Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.16%chance
71278
OptionVotes
2278
439
Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?
Nov 1, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.06%chance
41271
OptionVotes
2205
453
[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?
Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18.25%chance
18894
OptionVotes
1259
922
Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?
Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
37.83%chance
10525
OptionVotes
1282
780
Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?
Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
38.09%chance
2373
OptionVotes
1275
784
What will be the value of Capital One Rewards Points at the end of 2026?
Sep 28, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1260
OptionProbability
35
27
27
7
4