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Prediction markets for Capital One

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

7233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025?

Sep 19, 8:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

18.37%chance

112447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

479

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will Rojava still exist in 2030?

Dec 12, 2:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.34%chance

5940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1920

521

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.93%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

869

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.2%chance

9515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

786

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Which of the following financial services/banking stocks will perform best in calendar year 2025?

Jan 10, 2:07 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2130

OptionProbability

Capital One ($COF)

JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)

Other

Bank of America ($BAC)

Citigroup ($C)

Wells Fargo ($WFC)

26

18

16

13

13

13

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