CBO News

U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense

7 months ago

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

US Legislation

Economics

Politics

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

7 months ago

Tariffs

Economics

Politics

CBO Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting US Deficit by $4 Trillion

7 months ago

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Jun 14, 2:54 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1.37%chance

2013318

OptionVotes

YES

8688

120

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101181

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 9:30 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

9777

OptionProbability

$1000bn - $1999bn

$2000bn - $2999bn

$3000bn+

$0 - $999bn

Below $0

US population growth rate for 2025 will be

Sep 3, 4:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9517

OptionProbability

0.25% to 0.5%

0.5% to 0.75%

0.75% to 1.0%

Negative (population decline)

0% to 0.25%

Greater than 1.0%

Will Trump increase or reduce legal immigration?

Jun 23, 8:52 AMJan 20, 7:18 AM

14238

OptionProbability

Decrease

Neither

Increase

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2023?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.18%chance

2101

OptionProbability

YES

201

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.04%chance

1100

OptionProbability

YES

200

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

Mar 7, 1:25 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

596

527

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

72.98%chance

175

OptionProbability

YES

175

CBOE Putwrite index outperforms SPX (SP-500) over next year?

Jun 27, 11:03 PMAug 1, 11:03 PM

50%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

100

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2027?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

40%chance

OptionProbability

YES

100

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2026?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

40%chance

OptionProbability

YES

100

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
CBO Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting US Deficit by $4 Trillion
Authors
36
7 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense
Authors
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7 months ago
Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts
Authors
35
7 months ago

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Prediction markets for CBO

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Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

US population growth rate for 2025 will be

Will Trump increase or reduce *legal* immigration?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2023?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

CBOE Putwrite index outperforms SPX (SP-500) over next year?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2027?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2026?

Latest stories

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Will Trump increase or reduce legal immigration?