CBO News

U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense

1 year ago

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

US Legislation

Economics

Politics

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

1 year ago

Tariffs

Economics

Politics

CBO Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting US Deficit by $4 Trillion

1 year ago

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Jun 14, 2:54 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1.37%chance

2013318

OptionVotes

YES

8688

120

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101181

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 9:30 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

101027

OptionProbability

$1000bn - $1999bn

$2000bn - $2999bn

$3000bn+

$0 - $999bn

Below $0

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

Mar 7, 1:25 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

756

410

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

YES

1158

864

Will Trump increase or reduce legal immigration?

Jun 23, 8:52 AMJan 20, 7:18 AM

14238

OptionProbability

Decrease

Neither

Increase

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2023?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.18%chance

2101

OptionProbability

YES

201

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.04%chance

1100

OptionProbability

YES

200

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

72.98%chance

175

OptionProbability

YES

175

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2027?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

40%chance

OptionProbability

YES

100

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2026?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

40%chance

OptionProbability

YES

100

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1 year ago
Aug 18, 2025
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US Legislation
Economics
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U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense
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Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts
Authors
35
1 year ago

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Prediction markets for CBO

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Prediction markets for CBO

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Will Trump increase or reduce *legal* immigration?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2023?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2027?

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2026?

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Will Trump increase or reduce legal immigration?