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CBS News News

Gabbard Bars Five Eyes From U.S. Intel on Russia-Ukraine Talks

US Foreign Policy

Gabbard Bars Five Eyes From U.S. Intel on Russia-Ukraine Talks

5

7 months ago

House Democrats Probe Paramount–Skydance Deal Over Alleged $16 Million Trump Bribe

House Democrats Probe Paramount–Skydance Deal Over Alleged $16 Million Trump Bribe

10

7 months ago

Iowa Republican Joni Ernst Will Not Seek Senate Re-election in 2026

US Gov Appointments

Iowa Republican Joni Ernst Will Not Seek Senate Re-election in 2026

5

7 months ago

Whistleblower Alleges Gaza Aid Contractor Shot Civilians; U.S. Funding Faces Lawsuit

4

7 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Trump Secures Honduras, Uganda Pacts for Third-Country Migrant Deportations

33

7 months ago

Shari Redstone Sells Paramount Amid Baseless Trump Lawsuit Settlement Citing Need for Balance; Knight and Ford Foundations Pledge $26.5M to Support CPB Stations

8

7 months ago

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

8811622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2083

480

Will Colbert be forced off air before May, 2026?

Jul 27, 12:49 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

2.13%chance

503900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

679

15

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

272798

OptionProbability

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Any major news organization retracts a call

New election ordered for any seat

Any member seated who was not the winner

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

54

54

52

48

46

39

37

37

34

33

31

31

31

28

22

18

16

12

3

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief till

Dec 22, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71972

OptionProbability

End of June 2026

End of 2026

End of 2027

End of 2028

End of 2029

End of 2030

85

79

50

44

36

27

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

975

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

14%chance

91773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

403

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Feb 26, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30782

OptionProbability

The Washington Post

Neil Gaiman

Sam Bankman-Fried

CBS News

Gavin Newsom

CNN

Drake

Ezra Klein

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Sam Altman

Disney

Manifold

MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)

The Papacy

Taylor Lorenz

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

Taylor Swift

78

65

58

50

47

46

45

45

42

41

41

40

32

27

19

17

12

12

9

9

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Bari Weiss out as CBS News editor-in-chief before July 2026?

Oct 3, 3:14 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

15.01%chance

6186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

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