CBS News News

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

6082

164

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

10.8%chance

10014289

OptionVotes

YES

2874

348

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374594

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief till

Dec 22, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

124583

OptionProbability

End of June 2026

End of 2026

End of 2027

End of 2028

End of 2029

End of 2030

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

334447

OptionProbability

Market chaos

Vacant House seats at start of term

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

New election ordered for any seat

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any major news organization retracts a call

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect changes parties

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

7.16%chance

173540

OptionVotes

YES

3601

278

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

YES

1017

975

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.61%chance

111532

OptionVotes

YES

2258

443

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Feb 26, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30782

OptionProbability

The Washington Post

Neil Gaiman

Sam Bankman-Fried

CBS News

Gavin Newsom

CNN

Drake

Ezra Klein

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Sam Altman

Disney

Manifold

MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)

The Papacy

Taylor Lorenz

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

Taylor Swift

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

1061

942

CBS News News

Top stories

Prediction markets for CBS News

Prediction markets for CBS News

Prediction markets for CBS News

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief till

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

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