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Top stories

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for CEA

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

18.96%chance

589323531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10777

5610

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.67%chance

235208675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

34651

47

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Jun 8, 9:11 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

180129350

OptionProbability

Before 2028-07-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2026-01-01

73

65

54

23

2

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

6220395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

4791

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

3012041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7723

3690

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.27%chance

247506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5079

4995

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.94%chance

141535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5745

4853

CEA will run an EAG in 2030

Jul 29, 6:17 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

80.01%chance

81265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.23%chance

12672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

857

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.72%chance

13664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

818

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth
Authors
5
10 months ago

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