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Top stories

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for CEA

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

22.37%chance

553262179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9333

5985

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Jun 8, 9:11 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

170105125

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2026-01-01

82

62

32

17

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.57%chance

13438372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7664

1871

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.54%chance

928367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

1508

[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.92%chance

216205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5169

4395

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.07%chance

294356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5575

4732

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.74%chance

172622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7406

3813

CEA will run an EAG in 2030

Jul 29, 6:17 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

80.01%chance

81265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.94%chance

12516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.16%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

999

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

8201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5180

4868

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth
Authors
5
7 months ago

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