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Prediction markets for CEA
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
18.96%chance
589323531
OptionVotes
10777
5610
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
99.67%chance
235208675
OptionVotes
34651
47
OptionProbability
73
65
54
23
2
0
0
0
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.73%chance
6220395
OptionVotes
5494
4791
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.23%chance
3012041
OptionVotes
7723
3690
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
5.2%chance
928379
OptionVotes
2389
1500
[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.27%chance
247506
OptionVotes
5079
4995
[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.94%chance
141535
OptionVotes
5745
4853
OptionVotes
2001
500
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.13%chance
10742
OptionVotes
1016
375
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.23%chance
12672
OptionVotes
1233
857
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.72%chance
13664
OptionVotes
1403
818