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Prediction markets for CEA
OptionProbability
73
66
64
61
46
22
3
0
0
0
0
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.03%chance
9642876
OptionVotes
6104
4379
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.37%chance
4826223
OptionVotes
20093
1745
Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?
Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM
9%chance
7922197
OptionVotes
1861
46
[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.44%chance
3017290
OptionVotes
13159
4446
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
5.2%chance
928379
OptionVotes
2389
1500
[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.42%chance
185897
OptionVotes
9928
3914
Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM
14.83%chance
493623
OptionVotes
1519
859
OptionVotes
2001
500
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.13%chance
10742
OptionVotes
1016
375
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.23%chance
12672
OptionVotes
1233
857
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.72%chance
13664
OptionVotes
1403
818