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Prediction markets for CEA
Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?
Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
1.15%chance
316855132
OptionVotes
119785
2471
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
43.72%chance
507233913
OptionVotes
8134
4706
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.38%chance
183167202
OptionVotes
37000
1401
Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)
Aug 16, 3:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
95.11%chance
291156992
OptionVotes
4411
227
OptionVotes
9675
576
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
6.21%chance
906447
OptionVotes
2009
1523
Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025?
Apr 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
8.49%chance
151221
OptionVotes
1745
885
OptionVotes
1689
916
OptionVotes
1701
588
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.13%chance
10742
OptionVotes
1016
375
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.77%chance
11410
OptionVotes
1185
881
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.16%chance
12264
OptionVotes
1003
999