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Prediction markets for CEA
Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?
Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13%chance
270530822
OptionVotes
23353
6200
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
50%chance
428156087
OptionVotes
8797
3953
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.16%chance
10262933
OptionVotes
20913
3301
If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?
Aug 20, 11:16 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM
3434275
OptionProbability
80
15
2
2
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
6.31%chance
906445
OptionVotes
1978
1525
OptionVotes
1689
916
Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025?
Apr 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
9.42%chance
141061
OptionVotes
1585
901
OptionVotes
1701
588
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.13%chance
10742
OptionVotes
1013
372
Will Openphil continue to fund cause-agnostic EAGs via CEA in 2025?
Nov 5, 7:54 PMNov 12, 11:59 PM
97.52%chance
5527
OptionVotes
632
40
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.47%chance
10360
OptionVotes
1132
906
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.16%chance
12264
OptionVotes
1000
996
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