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Prediction markets for Central
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.52%chance
3826421
OptionVotes
1294
776
Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?
Nov 20, 12:30 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
3.93%chance
15512616
OptionVotes
2953
23
Will the Central Bank of Argentina exist on January 1 2030?
Nov 21, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
83.71%chance
293286
OptionVotes
1721
748
Who will qualify to the 2027 ICPC NAC? (East Central Division only)
Oct 26, 8:00 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM
131832
OptionProbability
86
84
80
45
33
29
20
16
5
3
2
2
Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2028?
Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.31%chance
221650
OptionVotes
1994
797
Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.14%chance
141487
OptionVotes
1991
502
Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?
Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.33%chance
241227
OptionVotes
1517
626
Will the U.S. have a central bank digital currency by 2030?
Mar 23, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.35%chance
12775
OptionVotes
1576
548
Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2033?
Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.37%chance
20708
OptionVotes
1071
941
Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?
Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47%chance
17311
OptionVotes
1089
904
Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?
Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM
37.78%chance
3310
OptionVotes
1283
779
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.4%chance
5142
OptionVotes
1137
879