CFTC News

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

8 months ago

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

US Legislation

US Gov Appointments

Regulation

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

8 months ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

Law

Regulation

Politics

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

8 months ago

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.48%chance

3623537

OptionVotes

YES

2327

418

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.08%chance

264144

OptionVotes

YES

2261

821

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

243581

OptionVotes

YES

2448

409

Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC?

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78%chance

72435

OptionVotes

YES

188

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

Apr 3, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82412

OptionProbability

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of April 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Nov 1, 3:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121524

OptionProbability

2026

2029

Not by end of 2029/never

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.61%chance

171122

OptionVotes

YES

1697

866

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Sep 8, 6:37 PMJan 2, 7:31 PM

1420

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2030

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 4:34 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

14.71%chance

6241

OptionVotes

YES

241

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

1117

934

Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?

May 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.37%chance

5213

OptionVotes

YES

140

Will Smarkets get approved as a DCM by the CFTC by EOY?

Mar 5, 6:23 PMDec 31, 7:23 PM

55.16%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

111

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Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC?

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?

Will Smarkets get approved as a DCM by the CFTC by EOY?

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