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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution
May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
14692045
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
91.47%chance
5013718
OptionVotes
4838
836
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?
May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
5.23%chance
3811901
OptionVotes
3916
589
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
222962
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
88.24%chance
182653
OptionVotes
2633
503
Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?
Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.12%chance
202222
OptionVotes
3084
588
Will the United States Supreme Court receive a challenge to gender identity as a protected class before 2026?
Apr 30, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.6%chance
141516
OptionVotes
1710
250
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
85.98%chance
311055
OptionVotes
1235
927
Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?
Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
9.76%chance
22932
OptionVotes
1787
808
Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?
Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.34%chance
24744
OptionVotes
1327
804
Will I win any prize in FWI's Innovation Challenge by October 17, 2025
Jun 12, 5:37 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM
35.43%chance
1350
OptionVotes
1350
741
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?
Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM
52.66%chance
11112
OptionVotes
1002
997
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