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Prediction markets for Challenger
How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution
May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
15196553
OptionProbability
54
16
9
8
4
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
57.92%chance
5215118
OptionVotes
1716
1276
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
223062
OptionProbability
32
26
12
12
10
8
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
88.24%chance
182653
OptionVotes
2633
503
Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?
Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.12%chance
202222
OptionVotes
3084
588
Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?
Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
5.87%chance
231932
OptionVotes
2787
727
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
87.08%chance
321155
OptionVotes
1335
912
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?
Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
93.51%chance
271054
OptionVotes
1536
912
Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?
Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.34%chance
24744
OptionVotes
1327
804
DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?
Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.3%chance
2123
OptionVotes
1099
910
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?
Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM
52.66%chance
11112
OptionVotes
1002
997
Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?
Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM
50%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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