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Prediction markets for Challenger
How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution
May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
15798338
OptionProbability
40
28
11
9
5
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
60
40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.35%chance
5315168
OptionVotes
1681
1326
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
223078
OptionProbability
32
26
12
12
10
8
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
88.24%chance
182653
OptionVotes
2633
503
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?
Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
93.51%chance
271054
OptionVotes
1536
912
Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?
Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.34%chance
24744
OptionVotes
1327
804
DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?
Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.82%chance
3423
OptionVotes
1399
715
Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?
Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM
37.48%chance
3327
OptionVotes
1292
774
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?
Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM
52.66%chance
11112
OptionVotes
1002
997
Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM
52.48%chance
673
OptionVotes
131
128
[Long Bet 78 clone (dormant challenge)] 4-day week officially implemented in 6 countries before 2070.
Aug 31, 1:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.24%chance
231
OptionVotes
111
90
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