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Israel's Dermer Meets Syrian, Qatari Officials in Paris on Border, Gaza Talks

10 months ago

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Jun 16, 8:04 AMJun 30, 6:59 AM

16.74%chance

14932109

OptionVotes

YES

6674

946

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Dec 18, 3:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

384931

OptionVotes

YES

997

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

Jun 17, 1:36 AMJul 16, 6:59 AM

45.25%chance

444593

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?

Jun 18, 1:03 AMAug 1, 6:59 AM

65.81%chance

263996

OptionVotes

YES

1387

721

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

1152

769

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

1852

540

Netflix announces project about October 2025 Louvre heist before 2027?

Oct 20, 5:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.09%chance

17906

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 24, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2510

OptionVotes

YES

1500

936

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?

Jun 17, 1:39 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.77%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

191

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?

Jun 18, 6:44 AMAug 1, 12:00 AM

23.3%chance

10161

OptionVotes

YES

160

When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?

Jun 3, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9115

OptionProbability

During 2026

Within a month

Not Before June 2027

Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August?

May 5, 4:42 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

109

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Israel's Dermer Meets Syrian, Qatari Officials in Paris on Border, Gaza Talks
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Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Netflix announces project about October 2025 Louvre heist before 2027?

Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?

When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?

Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August?

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