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Prediction markets for Channel 12
GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM
55.35%chance
183221
OptionVotes
1152
769
OptionVotes
1937
516
Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?
Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM
60.46%chance
102373
OptionVotes
1237
809
Netflix announces project about October 2025 Louvre heist before 2027?
Oct 20, 5:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.09%chance
17906
OptionVotes
206
49
Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 24, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.22%chance
2510
OptionVotes
1500
936
Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 28, 2026?
Sep 14, 5:52 AMSep 27, 11:59 PM
57%chance
132
OptionVotes
132
66
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