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Prediction markets for ChatGPT
5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"
Mar 27, 5:41 AMMar 28, 4:59 AM
89.42%chance
39253469
OptionVotes
2702
1446
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM
6.1%chance
8449885
OptionVotes
39234
2549
OptionVotes
6126
163
Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?
Dec 6, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.83%chance
418665
OptionVotes
1597
626
Will ChatGPT Plus users have unavoidable ads before the end of 2026?
Dec 4, 3:58 AMJan 1, 3:56 AM
7.68%chance
204426
OptionVotes
3467
288
ChatGPT-induced psychosis added to DSM-6 by December 31, 2030
Jul 17, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.1%chance
203869
OptionVotes
2468
405
ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of
Mar 24, 9:48 AMMar 24, 11:15 AM
83.55%chance
332631
OptionVotes
1675
688
Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?
Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.19%chance
451047
OptionVotes
1076
802
Will Joe Biden have been debriefed about AI risks between chatGPT’s launch and the launch of GPT-4?
Mar 4, 9:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
38.64%chance
16515
OptionVotes
173
101
Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?
Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM
56.9%chance
6341
OptionVotes
1149
870
Will "So You Think You've Awoken ChatGPT" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 11, 1:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
23.88%chance
5176
OptionVotes
1096
569
Will "On "ChatGPT Psychosis" and LLM Sycophancy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 24, 2:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.29%chance
3126
OptionVotes
1036
807