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Top stories

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for China Coast Guard

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

12.53%chance

465262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

512

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026

Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM

7.45%chance

11441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

353

28

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.08%chance

12289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

61

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.3%chance

7217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

58

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?

Aug 27, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

32.61%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Southeast Asia
China
World
China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal
Authors
4
3 months ago

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