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Top stories

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for China Coast Guard

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

353812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3915

255

China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026

Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM

4.52%chance

21731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

460

22

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17.51%chance

14316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

58

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

84.19%chance

7272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

40

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

45.03%chance

9206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

100

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.56%chance

5171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

57

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.23%chance

10162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

43.51%chance

895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.45%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

90

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Southeast Asia
China
World
China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal
Authors
4
1 year ago

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