CoG News

1 year ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529317

OptionVotes

YES

69104

9470

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

YES

1684

808

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

4120

3063

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.04%chance

171471

OptionVotes

YES

1134

649

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.61%chance

181460

OptionVotes

YES

1551

399

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.58%chance

241311

OptionVotes

YES

1763

830

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.06%chance

81166

OptionVotes

YES

3996

2252

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

989

987

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

1006

987

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

1484

1113

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

1087

962

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.57%chance

1350

OptionVotes

YES

1350

741

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1 year ago

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Latest stories

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