CoG News

5 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.97%chance

810504552

OptionVotes

YES

57764

10557

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

YES

1684

808

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

4131

3056

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

231261

OptionVotes

YES

1713

838

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.1%chance

61160

OptionVotes

YES

3993

2254

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.53%chance

14792

OptionVotes

YES

1118

952

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

989

987

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.95%chance

14474

OptionVotes

YES

1117

941

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

1006

987

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

1484

1113

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

1087

962

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.57%chance

1350

OptionVotes

YES

1350

741

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Kenya
Health
Science
Kenyan Counties, Council of Governors Reject Health Ministry’s Plan to Absorb 7,414 UHC Staff Requiring 7.6 Billion Shillings
Authors
3
5 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

CoG News

Top stories

Prediction markets for CoG

Prediction markets for CoG

Prediction markets for CoG

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram