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Prediction markets for CoG
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
5.21%chance
858583544
OptionVotes
89425
8110
Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030
Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
85.51%chance
282889
OptionVotes
1684
808
OptionVotes
1192
722
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.9%chance
241876
OptionVotes
4120
3063
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.64%chance
181549
OptionVotes
1726
321
Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.4%chance
171505
OptionVotes
1154
615
Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?
Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM
36.06%chance
81166
OptionVotes
3996
2252
By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?
Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.85%chance
26447
OptionVotes
1006
987
Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?
Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM
27.95%chance
9442
OptionVotes
1484
1113
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.11%chance
19383
OptionVotes
1087
962
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
64.57%chance
1350
OptionVotes
1350
741
Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?
Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
422
OptionProbability
72
59
50
50