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Prediction markets for Cognition AI
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.62%chance
792419119
OptionVotes
25144
17456
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
10.47%chance
335126206
OptionVotes
6451
596
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
47.9%chance
33599775
OptionVotes
4861
3188
OptionVotes
1007
964
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
15.33%chance
2529465
OptionVotes
23497
4256
OptionVotes
1031
904
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
15%chance
307794
OptionVotes
2286
457
OptionProbability
28
24
11
11
10
9
7
1
OptionVotes
2981
1492
OptionVotes
208
48
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
2195
OptionProbability
50
50
8
6
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