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Prediction markets for Cognition
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030
Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
85.51%chance
282889
OptionVotes
1684
808
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.8%chance
241865
OptionVotes
4131
3056
Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?
May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13%chance
221161
OptionVotes
1713
838
Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
78.53%chance
14792
OptionVotes
1118
952
Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.48%chance
21450
OptionVotes
1000
939
By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?
Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.85%chance
26447
OptionVotes
1006
987
Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?
Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM
27.95%chance
9442
OptionVotes
1484
1113
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.11%chance
19383
OptionVotes
1087
962
Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?
Nov 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM
38.87%chance
3256
OptionVotes
1254
797
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
67.44%chance
12174
OptionVotes
1000
993
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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