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Prediction markets for com
OptionVotes
18445
4797
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.19%chance
323660146
OptionVotes
2851
2156
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
42.67%chance
556467615
OptionVotes
2818
2386
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
87.01%chance
523205143
OptionVotes
10406
6058
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67.02%chance
9257160
OptionVotes
143218
70492
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
30.42%chance
2154258
OptionVotes
16293
6948
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
56.48%chance
22150870
OptionVotes
2505
1157
Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?
Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
50.13%chance
2224705
OptionVotes
10025
9975
Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?
Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.43%chance
512054
OptionVotes
1315
885
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?
Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.41%chance
171638
OptionVotes
1152
851
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?
Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.94%chance
13712
OptionVotes
1158
924
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?
Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.76%chance
6181
OptionVotes
401
148