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Chicago Storms Tear Off Roof, Cut Power to Tens of Thousands

10 months ago

Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

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Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

10 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

28.3%chance

22164709208

OptionVotes

YES

18445

4797

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

90079

6480

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

YES

143218

70492

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.48%chance

22150870

OptionVotes

YES

2505

1157

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Oct 18, 7:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

1.81%chance

269349

OptionVotes

YES

4316

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.86%chance

358036

OptionVotes

YES

2493

401

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

626505

OptionVotes

YES

2844

352

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

756035

OptionVotes

YES

2176

1183

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325918

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Mar 26, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

453640

OptionVotes

YES

1458

510

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

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