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4 months ago

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Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

3 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.22%chance

21224504845

OptionVotes

YES

17437

5215

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

6062532

OptionVotes

YES

56934

7037

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

2614

1027

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

YES

129891

76988

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Oct 18, 7:49 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

1.99%chance

239228

OptionVotes

YES

4215

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.48%chance

327418

OptionVotes

YES

3285

304

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

616449

OptionVotes

YES

2844

352

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

756035

OptionVotes

YES

2176

1183

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325908

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Will Bronny James retire alongside his father LeBron James when that time comes?

Oct 19, 1:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.82%chance

175092

OptionVotes

YES

3763

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Mar 26, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.21%chance

433490

OptionVotes

YES

1308

613

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will Bronny James retire alongside his father LeBron James when that time comes?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

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