ComEd News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.02%chance

20484293151

OptionVotes

YES

14019

7263

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

2518

1141

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

3.36%chance

5944351

OptionVotes

YES

38965

7534

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

YES

114667

87209

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Oct 18, 7:49 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

2.39%chance

208276

OptionVotes

YES

4025

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Oct 11, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

616449

OptionVotes

YES

2844

352

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.45%chance

294806

OptionVotes

YES

1807

554

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.34%chance

744323

OptionVotes

YES

2048

1204

Will Elsa come out as Lesbian in Frozen 3?

Mar 21, 7:35 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

11.73%chance

653798

OptionVotes

YES

2775

911

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

273075

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2025

2024

2023

What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.42%chance

3142

OptionProbability

YES

2606

2433

ComEd News

Prediction markets for ComEd

Prediction markets for ComEd

Prediction markets for ComEd

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?

Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

Will Elsa come out as Lesbian in Frozen 3?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?

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