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Prediction markets for Communist China
Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?
Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
356265
OptionProbability
51
13
9
8
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
26
17
12
11
8
7
7
6
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
95
93
82
81
75
63
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.92%chance
13960
OptionVotes
1731
580
OptionProbability
70
10
6
5
3
3
2
1
0
OptionVotes
351
28
OptionVotes
1249
925
Will Xi Jinping be either General Secretary or Chairman when he dies?
Nov 30, 3:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.44%chance
10252
OptionVotes
141
66
Will Xi Jinping stop being the leader of China before China goes to war with Taiwan
Mar 28, 11:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.18%chance
7240
OptionVotes
212
187
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.72%chance
15185
OptionVotes
1228
1030
Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.65%chance
7135
OptionVotes
159
63
Will Zhang Shengmin be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.02%chance
125
OptionVotes
125
80
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