Continental News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Continental
What's a common idea/opinion/concept that you think is overrated?
Oct 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
9910782
OptionProbability
91
89
87
87
84
84
82
80
80
79
78
78
76
75
75
75
74
74
73
72
72
71
70
70
70
65
65
65
64
63
62
61
61
59
56
55
52
51
50
50
49
49
48
48
47
47
46
45
45
43
42
41
41
41
40
40
37
36
35
34
34
32
30
30
28
28
27
27
26
25
23
23
22
22
21
20
15
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
53%chance
818907
OptionVotes
1027
830
OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.28%chance
264385
OptionVotes
3328
300
Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?
Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51%chance
181206
OptionVotes
1021
981
Will NASA livestream of the August 12, 2026 total solar eclipse exceed 2 million concurrent viewers?
Aug 1, 9:00 PMNov 11, 12:59 AM
14.9%chance
311154
OptionVotes
239
42
Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics?
Oct 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
13.41%chance
11372
OptionVotes
537
110
Will there be scientific consensus that Polynesians made Pre-Columbian contact with South Americans?
May 13, 5:16 AMMay 20, 5:11 AM
44.31%chance
8313
OptionVotes
1121
892
Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?
May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8260
OptionProbability
80
76
68
55
50
50
50
45
41
34
24
24
0
0
OptionVotes
197
51
Will there be a commercially available direct flight from the continental USA to Thailand by the end of 2029?
Oct 10, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.56%chance
434
OptionVotes
107
93
Will "Agent Foundations Reminds Me of Continental P..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jun 4, 12:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?
Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
Latest stories
Latest stories