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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
65.07%chance
11314902
OptionVotes
2220
880
[20k liquidity] Cooked-o-meter: 2025 Tour de France Femmes Stage 9
Aug 3, 4:05 AMAug 3, 2:30 PM
210300
OptionProbability
43
39
38
35
21
20
17
Will a crossing of the Cook Strait, between New Zealand's North and South Islands, have started construction by 2040?
Jul 5, 9:21 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
10.04%chance
181033
OptionVotes
1342
911
Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?
Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
9.76%chance
22932
OptionVotes
1787
808
OptionVotes
331
88
OptionVotes
1341
746
[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM
24.19%chance
12328
OptionVotes
239
161
OptionVotes
1030
973
OptionVotes
220
45
OptionVotes
220
45
Will I fly to New Mexico to buy chilis at Costco and cook @billga's Green Chile Stew before Souper Tuesday 2032?
Mar 26, 2:29 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM
65.03%chance
9103
OptionVotes
291
205
OptionVotes
120
102
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