Corpus News

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

6 months ago

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.98%chance

6012300

OptionVotes

YES

1676

648

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.62%chance

439208

OptionVotes

YES

1118

901

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

453647

OptionVotes

YES

1514

548

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

1149

870

Will President Trump suspend Habeas Corpus?

May 10, 1:22 PMJan 20, 2:06 PM

30.27%chance

171827

OptionVotes

YES

1518

659

What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?

Apr 8, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4378

OptionProbability

A book in the main ASOIAF series (ie a sequel to “A Dance with Dragons”, eg “The Winds of Winter”)

A “Dunk and Egg” story or stories

A sequel to “Fire & Blood”

A different in-universe non-fiction book/story

Martin will not release another book/story in the ASOIAF universe in his lifetime

A different fiction book/story

By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:10 AMJan 1, 12:04 PM

2215

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

Will Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026?

Oct 1, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.36%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

154

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) spontaneously experience bodhicitta?

Jan 4, 10:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.11%chance

889

OptionVotes

YES

202

129

AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

Nov 27, 7:23 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

63%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

130

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
California
Politics
United States
San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus
Authors
3
6 months ago

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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Will President Trump suspend Habeas Corpus?

What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?

By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Will Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) spontaneously experience bodhicitta?

AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

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