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Prediction markets for Corpus
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
13.52%chance
286689112
OptionVotes
25059
4459
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.25%chance
6011901
OptionVotes
1395
730
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.29%chance
216832
OptionVotes
3327
301
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.8%chance
346732
OptionVotes
1499
667
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.55%chance
433595
OptionVotes
1634
496
OptionVotes
1306
766
Will the Trump Administration suspend Habeas Corpus in 2025?
May 10, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.06%chance
321092
OptionVotes
173
58
OptionProbability
88
55
What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?
Apr 8, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3108
OptionProbability
24
17
15
15
15
12
Will "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumeria..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 16, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.09%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1001
994
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) spontaneously experience bodhicitta?
Jan 4, 10:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.91%chance
888
OptionVotes
191
121
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