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Prediction markets for Corpus
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.55%chance
8250361
OptionVotes
28550
2982
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.39%chance
6012486
OptionVotes
1590
670
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.73%chance
6111442
OptionVotes
1104
913
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
66.1%chance
463672
OptionVotes
1464
573
Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?
Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.09%chance
82651
OptionVotes
1149
870
OptionVotes
1768
566
Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?
Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.17%chance
4193
OptionVotes
1147
872
Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.89%chance
7161
OptionVotes
107
86
AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?
Nov 27, 7:23 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
63%chance
453
OptionVotes
130
77
Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?
May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.52%chance
445
OptionVotes
134
85
Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.8%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
98
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