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Council of the Americas News

    Prediction markets for Council of the Americas

    OptionProbability

    Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11

    Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State

    Be a man (cis or trans)

    Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)

    Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature

    Be considered broadly left-wing in their country

    Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent

    Have been married

    Have been in custody

    Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area

    Rule an African country

    Rule a country with same-sex marriage

    Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation

    Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime

    Come to power as the result of a coup

    Be out as LGBTQIA+

    Have used a prediction market

    84

    71

    67

    57

    54

    54

    52

    50

    47

    46

    43

    38

    29

    25

    24

    21

    9

    If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

    Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM
    50.84%chance
    20569

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1152

    803

    OptionProbability

    Hugo Soto-Martinez (incumbent)

    Other

    55

    45

    OptionProbability

    Eunisses Hernandez (incumbent)

    Other

    Lou Calanche

    Jesus Jesse Rosas

    Elaine Alaniz

    Sylvia Robledo

    Raul Claros

    20

    17

    16

    15

    13

    11

    7

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